2026 March Madness Sleeper and Upset watch with less than a month to go until the First Four
- Tesh

- 18 minutes ago
- 2 min read
March Madness is less than a month away and a lot of teams are mostly solidified into a certain range of seeding. We see our top overall seeds likely being Michigan, Arizona, Duke and Connecticut. We also see teams who are much better on one side of the ball than the other receive potential seeing ranging from 5-12. Two teams that are much better on offense than defense but avoid being completely poor on their weaker side are Texas and Auburn. We see both of these teams capable of making a run due to their elite top 10 KenPom ranked offenses. Texas has wins over Vanderbilt, Alabama and a 20 point road win against Georgia who was the number 1 scoring offense during this time.

Texas comes into the most recent Joe Lunadri Bracketology update as a 9 seed with a first round match up against Iowa. Texas is currently ranked as the 5th strongest offense in the country which also is composed largely of upper-classmen who have plenty of March Madness experience. They are 100th defensively which has been their huge flaw in games this season but have held 3 out of their last 4 opponents to under 70 points. They ended up winning all of these four games to back up their elite offensive ranks. If we do see them play Iowa, they do have the scoring advantage as Iowa is outside of the top 25. This could set up a second round rematch against Duke, a team that they lost to very early into the year. Texas has soared in offensive rankings since then and are currently a more efficient scoring unit than Duke whom rank 7th. If Texas can continue to find their scoring success even for a half, they could be in position to upset Duke early in the NCAA Tournament. This would be a tall task considering Duke is the 2nd ranked defense. Keep an eye on this top 5 Texas offense going into the postseason.

Auburn is currently coming in at the 10th ranked offense and 93rd defense according to KenPom. They have struggled and won and lost in spurts throughout the season. They’ve lost to the best of the best and have had a huge upset including at home to Arkansas and on the road against Florida. They would be an 8 seed facing Indiana in a potential first round matchup. Indiana has an offense that ranks outside the top 30 ranks and we like to think Auburn does have the advantage. If they advance they would likely face Connecticut, a team that's gotten by Providence in overtime and another under 10 point win against them at home. Providence holds the 199th KenPom ranked defense. Connecticut also has barely won against multiple other teams in the Big East and is much less dominant than their previous championship teams. They rank as the 22nd offense and 10th defense in the country. We think this is a huge opportunity for a team like Auburn who can outscore opponents so much so where it could be difficult for a lesser team on that end to catch up. This could be another potential upset pick considering the talent on this Auburn team who could find their stride late into their season.








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