Upset Alert: March Madness Sleeper Teams 2026

We’re going to be looking at the top 3 sleeper teams for March Madness based on the most recent Joe Lunardi Bracketology release. We will be picking teams that we think can go on a deep run and out play the seeding they’re currently projected to be. We will be covering each team's season so far including big wins and losses along with KenPom numbers to support our picks. Getting even one of these teams correct could mean the difference between you scoring in the top percentile of all brackets instead of it being busted on the third day.

Auburn

The first team we have on our list is Auburn. The Tigers found themselves struggling early in the year with losses to Final Four favorites including Michigan, Arizona and Purdue. These games weren’t close and Auburn found themselves with a bad defense and an offense that couldn't keep them close. They went on to have a tough OT loss on the road against Georgia who had been the highest scoring team in the country at that point. Just a few games later they seemed to find their stride with a 20+ point win against Arkansas holding them to 73 points and putting up 95 themselves. Since this game Auburn has gone on to win four of their next five including wins at Florida and against a red hot Texas team who had just beaten Alabama and Vanderbilt back to back. Auburn now finds themselves with the 10th ranked KenPom offense and their defense has improved to 74th. With so many new faces on this roster including leading scorer Keyshawn Hall, it seems as if they just needed some time to play well together.

If we look at a potential March Madness scenario, we see Auburn projected to currently be a 7 seed with a first round matchup against Miami and a potential second round against Michigan State or Navy. None of these teams are a top 40 offense according to KenPom and none come close to the offensive efficiency that Auburn has shown so far this year.

If Auburn does advance to the second weekend, they would likely face Gonzaga, a team who is outside of a top 15 offense sitting at the 19th ranking. This Gonzaga team is not like the ones over the past few seasons where they’ve been a top 6 offense year after year. Other teams that Auburn could face would be Ohio State, Clemson or Portland State who are all worse than Gonzaga both offensively and defensively. This puts Auburn in the clear driver seat if they can play solid defense to compliment their scoring output. Along with this they have March Madness experienced guard Tahaad Petiford who averaged 15.2 ppg for Auburn on their road to the Final Four a season ago as a freshman. He isn’t shooting as well this season but still is their second leading scorer helping lead this team to a steady top 10 offense.

Alabama

The second team on our list of March Madness sleepers is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are currently projected to be a 5 seed in a region where UConn will be the 1 and Nebraska the 2. If we look at Alabama’s season so far they’ve had key wins and losses to multiple teams likely to be seen at this year's NCAA tournament. Key wins against Illinois, St. Johns and Clemson while some key losses include Purdue, Gonzaga and Arizona. Alabama has consistently held a top 3 KenPom offense throughout this entire season and are currently 3rd. They have multiple guys who have played in the Elite 8 just a season ago including leading scorers Labaraon Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway. Their addition of Charles Bediako gives Alabama hope to greatly improve defensively as he was a part of the 2023 All-SEC Defensive Team. In his two games played so far he's averaging 13.5 ppg on 81.8% from the field and 90% from the free throw line. It seems as if his offense has greatly improved since his last season at Alabama.

Alabama is currently projected to face Tulsa in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Tulsa is a top 25 offense but 173rd in terms of KenPom defensively giving the Crimson Tide the advantage on both ends. They will likely play BYU in a second round showdown with potential the number 1 overall pick and 13th ranked offense. BYU is also top 25 defensively but we still think Alabama has the advantage solely based on how elite their offensive production is even compared to a team like BYU. If Alabama does make it to the second weekend, they could face UConn, who currently sits as the 40th ranked offense and much lower than recent Husky teams easily top 15 in this category. UConn has barely slipped by teams who have struggled this season including a recent 64-62 win at Georgetown and 87-81 win at home against Providence. Providence is the 202nd ranked defense to put it into perspective. Looking at a potential elite 8 matchup against Nebraska would also give Alabama the clear scoring and experience advantage as Nebraska isn’t a top 20 offense despite their 2 seed projection. Not only that, the Cornhuskers are 0-8 in the NCAA tournament and have only one appearance in the past 10 years. This is almost the opposite of what Alabama has experienced as of late as they’ve made it to the Elite 8 and Final Four the past two seasons. Keep an eye out for Alabama to be a potential sleeper to potentially make a big run come March.

Arkansas

The last team on our current list of March Madness sleepers is Arkansas who currently sits at a projected 5 seed. Arkansas has had big wins against Louisville, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt this season and key losses to Michigan State, Duke and Houston. They’re playing much better than their early season start in terms of KenPom offensive numbers where they currently have the 6th ranked offense in the country. This is the likely highest ranking this team has had during the John Calipari era as last season they finished 64th in this category and still made it to the Sweet 16. This offense is really clicking now led by freshmen Darius Acuff Jr., Meleek Thomas and returner Trevon Brazile. All three players are averaging double figures in scoring and shooting 39% or better from three point range.

They would be slated to face Yale in the first round, a program that upset a 4 seeded Auburn just a few seasons ago. Even with Yale’s top 25 offense they sit 193rd defensively which will likely allow Arkansas to score with ease. In a potential second round matchup, they will likely see Kansas who is outside of a top 50 offense despite their star talent. This in our opinion gives Arkansas a huge advantage if Kansas struggles to score early. If Arkansas does make it to the second weekend they’ll likely be set up for a rematch against Duke in what could be a buzzer-beater type of game considering how much Arkansas has improved since their previous meeting. Paired with their elite offense, coaching and run last season to the Sweet 16 with a much less potent offense, we think Arkansas can no doubt make another run this time around.

All in all we find ourselves with 3 SEC teams on our Sleeper picks list. This is coming off a year where the SEC set an NCAA record with 14 out of 16 eligible teams making it to the big dance, a record that was 11 previously via the Big East in 2011. Maybe this will show how dominant the conference is even in a supposed down year.