Mid-season March Madness outlook

At about the halfway point of the season we’re starting to get a much clearer picture of what the March Madness field will likely look like. We see programs seeded on Joe Lundardi’s most recent update based on 15+ games played for all teams. We will be taking a look at teams we think are set up for success and in our opinion better suited for a March Madness run compared to teams whose path may be more difficult putting them on upset alert. Our mid-season three teams ready for a March Madness run vs. teams to on upset watch below: 

Ready for a March Madness run: 

Purdue 

Currently they are a 2 seed in the East region with a first round matchup against Winthrop and a potential second round meeting against the winner of Kentucky/SMU. Purdue has the #1 KenPom ranked offense and was the preseason #1 in most rankings. This team is filled with players who were on the National Runner up group just a few seasons ago. In their first round matchup they would play a Winthrop team who ranks 212th defensively.

In their second round matchup they potentially play an SMU team who lost to Vanderbilt by 19, a team similar yet still worse offensively than Purdue. Kentucky on the other hand is barely within the top 50 KenPom offense rankings at 49th. If we look at the 1 seed in the region, UConn, they are also by far the worst offensive ranked team out of all the 1’s sitting outside of the top 25 at a 26th ranking. We think this opens it up for Purdue in the East region given how there literally is no offense better than theirs. 

Virginia

At a current 5 seed in the East region, Virginia would be set to play George Mason in the first round. George Mason is a top 100 offense and defense and a good team overall but their one loss came to another ACC team Virginia Tech by double figures. Virginia is the 14th ranked offense and 18th defense in the country showing how great they are both ways.

In a potential second round matchup against Michigan St., they would have a huge advantage offensively as Michigan St. ranks 58th. They do hold the 2nd best defense so Virginia will need to figure out a way to get their scoring going. They would then play another team likely in UConn who they also have the offensive advantage over. If they can get past these two teams then it's a certified run. 

Auburn

As a 10 seed in the most up to date bracketology, Auburn has the 9th ranked offense in the nation. Auburn is coming off of a 22 point win against an Arkansas team also top 10 in that category who hadn’t seen a loss that bad all season. Where they struggle is defensively where they are barely within the top 100. They would potentially play in a first round matchup against St. John’s who isn’t as elite as Auburn offensively.

If they can get past St. John’s, they would likely play Iowa State, a team who undoubtedly is elite defensively but worse than Auburn in scoring efficiency. This one really depends on which Auburn team decides to show up but we still like to lean on their elite level of offense in a tournament scenario. 

Upset Watch:

Nebraska

Currently at the 2 line, Nebraska sits outside of a top 25 KenPom offensive ranking and outside of the top 10 defensively. Considering this, they are not elite on either end of the court statistically making them more vulnerable for an early round upset. If we look at their first weekend matchups including a first round meeting against North Dakota State and a second round meeting against either UCF or Texas A&M, Nebraska does have a nice draw against beatable teams.

If we move into a potential second week we would now see teams with elite offenses including Louisville or BYU, two teams who’ve been consistently top 10 in terms of KenPom offense. They could also see Texas, a top 15 offense and a team that could be the biggest riser in college basketball with recent wins against Alabama and Vanderbilt. This puts Nebraska on instant upset watch as anything shorter than the Elite 8 as a 2 seed would likely be a disappointment. 

Iowa State

Also at the 2 line, Iowa State holds the 15th ranked KenPom offense and 2nd ranked KenPom defense. We don’t see Iowa State struggling in their first game against UT Martin but could see them having issues against a top 10 offense in Auburn in round 2 or against the 3rd ranked offense in Illinois during a potential second weekend meeting.

This is a somewhat similar scenario to Nebraska but could be even more difficult here for Iowa State. 

UConn 

As a current 1 seed, UConn is by far the lowest ranked offense of all 1 seeds ranking 26th. They are the 5th best defense in the country but they could be playing Georgia in the second round. Georgia is the 22nd ranked offense and 1st in ppg in the nation putting up 96.4 a game. This could pose for a potential early upset considering Georgia was also in the tournament last season but got bounced by an elite Gonzaga team.

If UConn does make it to the second weekend, they could face a new offensive minded Virginia team who still plays great defense. Looking even deeper into March they could then face Purdue who is the #1 offense just to get into the Final Four. This could be by far the toughest road for any 1 seed.