Why Arkansas is College Basketball's Biggest Riser - A Sleeper Final Four Contender

Back when we made our early season Contender & Pretenders article, Arkansas was the 47th KenPom ranked offense and not incredibly distant from their 64th rank to end last season. Check again and you’ll find Arkansas well inside the top 10 and now as high as the 6th rank. To move from the 47th ranked offense to the now 6th is likely the biggest offensive improvement this season by any team. They rank 14th in ppg scoring 89 ppg and are top 50 in assists per game. This is a huge improvement from their 76 ppg a season ago, a testament to their top five leading scorers all shooting above 40% from range. This squad has had multiple huge wins to begin the season including Louisville and Vanderbilt, two fellow top 10 offenses. These wins are significant in our opinion because last season during their March Madness run, they beat two teams outside of a top 50 KenPom offense to reach the Sweet 16 but eventually lost to Texas Tech, a team that finished as the 5th ranked offense in the country.

If we look at a potential March Madness scenario for Arkansas using Joe Lunardi’s most updated bracketology, we can see them as a potential 5 seed. This would set the Razorbacks to be in a first round matchup against FAU, a team outside of a top 100 offense and the 90th ranked defense. They would then be in a potential March Madness rematch against a Texas Tech team not as elite this season offensively. If they can get by Tech, they could be in a rematch against Duke, a team they lost to by 8 on a neutral court this season and during a time when Arkansas was not playing anywhere near as elite as they are now. A win here in the Sweet 16 would mean they have done better than last season setting up an Elite 8 matchup against a team such as Purdue, Louisville or Iowa State. With their elite level of offense and coaching paired with their upset run last season, Arkansas looks to be a real contender to reach the Final Four and in our opinion, one of the most likely teams to do so that are not a 1, 2 or 3 seed.